Fan Cheng The robot field is full of dangers. Can the business cycle be resolved?
Опубликован в:2020-07-27
Austrian American political economist and sociologist Schumpeters most famous economic proposition is called "business cycle", also known as "business cycle". According to him, "innovation" is an economic process that rearranges and combines the original production factors into new production methods in order to improve efficiency and reduce costs. In Schumpeters economic model, those who can successfully "innovate" can get rid of the dilemma of diminishing profits and survive. Those who cannot successfully recombine production factors will be eliminated by the market first.
When the business cycle reaches the bottom, the industry begins to decline. This is when some entrepreneurs have to consider withdrawing from the market or other entrepreneurs have to "innovate" in order to survive. As long as the redundant competitors are screened out or some successful "innovations" are produced, the prosperity and production efficiency will be improved. However, once an industry recovers and develops and is profitable again, it will attract new competitors to invest, and then it will be a process of diminishing profits and return to the previous state.
Therefore, every depression includes the possibility of a technological innovation. This sentence can also be stated in reverse: the result of technological innovation is the predictable next depression, so creativity and destruction are homologous.
In short, the decline of industrial development forces scientific and technological innovation. Scientific and technological innovation brings short-term improvement, which means the next recession. The economy circulates in the process of innovation - Development - recession - innovation - recession - innovation.
The course of industrial revolution and the history of robot development
So far, there have been four landmark industrial revolutions in human history.
The first industrial revolution from 1760 to the 1930s and 1940s represented a great leap from manual labor to machine labor. At this point, robots are not even fantasy.
By the 1870s, the second industrial revolution represented by the large-scale application of electricity began and continued until the 1920s. At the tail of the second industrial revolution, a playwright named chapek began to have the idea of robot. In 1920, he published the science fiction script "universal robot" and invented the word robot, which has become a classic of science fiction in the world.
The industrial revolution is really closely related to robots, which officially began in the third industrial revolution from the 1940s to the present. The third industrial revolution made the traditional industry more mechanized and automated, reduced the work cost, completely changed the operation mode of the whole society, and created the computer industry, a high-tech industry. At present, it is the largest and most far-reaching scientific and technological revolution in human history. Joseph Engelberg, known as the "father of robots", developed the worlds first industrial robot during this period.
The fourth industrial revolution came into being in the 21st century. Since April 2013, industrial revolution 4 was officially proposed at the Hannover Industrial Expo. 0, the curtain of a new era has opened. The fourth industrial revolution led by artificial intelligence, 5g and big data will promote the era of industrial change with information technology and lead the era of intelligence. At the same time, the robot is also developing towards intelligence.
Robot, innovation and crisis coexist
In the context of the epidemic, the manufacturing industry is facing a "big test", and the emergence of "labor shortage" has also stimulated new imagination in the robot and intelligent manufacturing industry. Moreover, the robot has been developed for a long time and landed slowly, which requires a lot of capital support. There is a "thrilling jump" between innovation and landing. Once the jump is unsuccessful, not only the robot company but also the investor will suffer losses. Once innovation stagnates, development will no longer exist.
However, at present, Chinas robot industry does not have a large number of problems such as capital withdrawal. The real problem is on the contrary: the influx and accumulation of a large amount of funds will provide sufficient innovation foundation for the robot field. The improvement of prosperity and production efficiency will attract more investors, which means higher risk. When the industry as a whole or some enterprises cannot follow the pace of innovation, or once the funds gather in a highly sought after segment and ignore other fields, the rupture of the capital chain will lead to the collapse of the industry as a whole.
Therefore, while the development is hot, it is also a time of urgent need for caution. Although the "business cycle" is a general trend in the tide of history, for the current robot industry, it may make a smooth transition to a new stage by maintaining calm, doing a good job in innovation and deeply cultivating the market, but not catering to the market.
Social innovation should also keep up with robot innovation
At present, the number of manufacturing employees in many developed countries is declining, not because of the transfer of labor-intensive industries or the influx of cheap labor, but because of technological progress, which makes us usher in a new era of robots.
It is an irreversible trend for robots to replace labor, which will bring difficult employment and social unrest to a certain extent.
Although apple and its original supplier Foxconn have said they will start new factories in the United States. However, no matter how big the factory is, it is not enough to drive a large number of unemployed people to find a living again. After all, the substitution of machines for labor is the necessity of technological innovation. It is against the historical development trend to let technological innovation regress to adapt to the society.
Therefore, in todays era of machine replacement, when robots are supported by innovation in all aspects, social innovation cannot be behind. In addition to the support of relevant policies, the transformation of personal ideas and the improvement of ability must also be in place. Only in this way can we not be patted to the backward shore by the rolling torrent of history.
The progress of history is always accompanied by risks, crises and retrogression. Change will bring crisis, but crisis also means change. If the robot, a big ship in the historical wave, wants to stand the tide bravely, it must use innovation to make sails and oars in order to deal with changeable winds and waves.
When the business cycle reaches the bottom, the industry begins to decline. This is when some entrepreneurs have to consider withdrawing from the market or other entrepreneurs have to "innovate" in order to survive. As long as the redundant competitors are screened out or some successful "innovations" are produced, the prosperity and production efficiency will be improved. However, once an industry recovers and develops and is profitable again, it will attract new competitors to invest, and then it will be a process of diminishing profits and return to the previous state.
Therefore, every depression includes the possibility of a technological innovation. This sentence can also be stated in reverse: the result of technological innovation is the predictable next depression, so creativity and destruction are homologous.
In short, the decline of industrial development forces scientific and technological innovation. Scientific and technological innovation brings short-term improvement, which means the next recession. The economy circulates in the process of innovation - Development - recession - innovation - recession - innovation.
The course of industrial revolution and the history of robot development
So far, there have been four landmark industrial revolutions in human history.
The first industrial revolution from 1760 to the 1930s and 1940s represented a great leap from manual labor to machine labor. At this point, robots are not even fantasy.
By the 1870s, the second industrial revolution represented by the large-scale application of electricity began and continued until the 1920s. At the tail of the second industrial revolution, a playwright named chapek began to have the idea of robot. In 1920, he published the science fiction script "universal robot" and invented the word robot, which has become a classic of science fiction in the world.
The industrial revolution is really closely related to robots, which officially began in the third industrial revolution from the 1940s to the present. The third industrial revolution made the traditional industry more mechanized and automated, reduced the work cost, completely changed the operation mode of the whole society, and created the computer industry, a high-tech industry. At present, it is the largest and most far-reaching scientific and technological revolution in human history. Joseph Engelberg, known as the "father of robots", developed the worlds first industrial robot during this period.
The fourth industrial revolution came into being in the 21st century. Since April 2013, industrial revolution 4 was officially proposed at the Hannover Industrial Expo. 0, the curtain of a new era has opened. The fourth industrial revolution led by artificial intelligence, 5g and big data will promote the era of industrial change with information technology and lead the era of intelligence. At the same time, the robot is also developing towards intelligence.
Robot, innovation and crisis coexist
In the context of the epidemic, the manufacturing industry is facing a "big test", and the emergence of "labor shortage" has also stimulated new imagination in the robot and intelligent manufacturing industry. Moreover, the robot has been developed for a long time and landed slowly, which requires a lot of capital support. There is a "thrilling jump" between innovation and landing. Once the jump is unsuccessful, not only the robot company but also the investor will suffer losses. Once innovation stagnates, development will no longer exist.
However, at present, Chinas robot industry does not have a large number of problems such as capital withdrawal. The real problem is on the contrary: the influx and accumulation of a large amount of funds will provide sufficient innovation foundation for the robot field. The improvement of prosperity and production efficiency will attract more investors, which means higher risk. When the industry as a whole or some enterprises cannot follow the pace of innovation, or once the funds gather in a highly sought after segment and ignore other fields, the rupture of the capital chain will lead to the collapse of the industry as a whole.
Therefore, while the development is hot, it is also a time of urgent need for caution. Although the "business cycle" is a general trend in the tide of history, for the current robot industry, it may make a smooth transition to a new stage by maintaining calm, doing a good job in innovation and deeply cultivating the market, but not catering to the market.
Social innovation should also keep up with robot innovation
At present, the number of manufacturing employees in many developed countries is declining, not because of the transfer of labor-intensive industries or the influx of cheap labor, but because of technological progress, which makes us usher in a new era of robots.
It is an irreversible trend for robots to replace labor, which will bring difficult employment and social unrest to a certain extent.
Although apple and its original supplier Foxconn have said they will start new factories in the United States. However, no matter how big the factory is, it is not enough to drive a large number of unemployed people to find a living again. After all, the substitution of machines for labor is the necessity of technological innovation. It is against the historical development trend to let technological innovation regress to adapt to the society.
Therefore, in todays era of machine replacement, when robots are supported by innovation in all aspects, social innovation cannot be behind. In addition to the support of relevant policies, the transformation of personal ideas and the improvement of ability must also be in place. Only in this way can we not be patted to the backward shore by the rolling torrent of history.
The progress of history is always accompanied by risks, crises and retrogression. Change will bring crisis, but crisis also means change. If the robot, a big ship in the historical wave, wants to stand the tide bravely, it must use innovation to make sails and oars in order to deal with changeable winds and waves.
